Understanding the Wager Pricing Policy of Bookmakers at the 2014 FIFA World Cup

I came across an interesting observation during this world cup, this time in relation to the pricing mechanism followed by the bookmakers.

This graphic shows the betting quotes on bet365.com of an outright WC win for each of the participating teams. Going by the law of demand, ceteris paribus, the bet price of an event is an inverse function of its probability. Hence, we can clearly see Brazil, Argentina and Germany are the obvious favorites of the bookies. Now an intelligent investor/gambler would be one who can compare the actual winning probability of a team vis-à-vis its speculative probability of winning. This is similar to arbitrage trading where the price difference is discovered between a security's fair value forward rate and its existing market value forward rate and thereupon arbitraging the price differential to earn profit. However in case of stock market, the inefficiencies decrease with time and the market price tends to move towards the actual fair value whereas in a betting exchange (which consists of more 'emotional gamblers' rather than 'wise investors'), the bookmaker would allow certain inefficiencies to exist so as to attract high volume of transactions.

In the current context, the actual winning probability of teams like Brazil and Argentina might be less than their speculative probabilities (as based on bet365 quotes) especially considering a likely Group 16 Brazil-Spain clash and Argentina's below par performance against Bosnia. On the other hand, teams like Italy and France who are coming at the back of decent performances are being traded at high prices i.e., the bookies want to make you feel that Italy is six times less likely to win the WC than Brazil. That's not right, is it?

Now before I end, I need to make an important disclaimer. Wagering agreements are illegal in India. I do not profess or encourage any sort of irresponsible gambling whatsoever. The above observation is just to share the application of basic statistics and investment fundamentals in sports. Enjoy the game!

For more such feeds, check my blog at investmentcalculus.blogspot.com

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International Seminar

Dear Friend,

The official launching of AFC Medical Conference 2015 was done in New Delhi on 26 April 2014 in a glittering function.

The Registration for the conference is now open. 

Please find below the registration  details.

Regards,

Dr P S M Chandran

Organizing Secretary

AFC Medical Conference Delhi, 2015

9810881691

Registration Fee (Pre - Conference Workshop/Cources)

Delegates will be eligible to attend the pre-conference workshop/course provided he/she must have been registered and have fully paid the registration fee for the 3-day conference. Since each pre-conference course/workshop will have only limited seats, we encourage the delegates to register as early as possible to secure  a slot.

N.B

Registered delegates for the pre-conference will have a full access to the workshop/course, teaching materials and certificate

Registration Fee (Conference)

Delegates are eligible for the following:

·         Morning and Afternoon Teas and Lunch

·         Scientific Booklet (conference program and abstracs for keynotes, symposium, instructional lectures and free papers)

·         Delegate Conference Kit (satchel, notepads, souvenirs & giveaways)

·         Access to Scientific Exhibition

·         Access to Poster Presentation Session

·         Certificate of Participation

·         Access to the Official Gala Dinner (Additional guest to Official Gala Dinner fee of US$50.00/INRs. 3000)

Registration Procedure:

1.  Secure your registration on-line for the 5th AFCMedCon 2015 sub-site (to be ready on the 15^th April, 2014) by clicking here: Register for the MedCon 2015

2.  Make the necessary payment through the following:

o Telegraphic Bank Transfer

o Demand Drafts

o Cheque

o Cash at AIFF Office

3.  Kindly indicate the payment details on remitted transfer advice to beneficiary if payment by Bank Transfer / Demand Draft at

o     

Beneficiary Name	AIFF - AFC MEDCON 2015
Bank Name	IDBI Bank Ltd.
Account No	0172104000083809
Bank Address/Branch	G1 & G6,Ashirwad Mall,Plot No-3,Sector-5,Ashirwad Chowk, Dwarka,New Delhi-110075
Swift Code	IBKLINBB010

o    Note: All local and overseas bank charges shall be borne by remitter (participant). Otherwise the organizer shall ask for the balance due after showing the statement/electronic receipt. You will be informed of any deficit before coming to New Delhi.

o     

4.  After completion of the payment, kindly refer back to your registration email for payment upload link.

5.  For any assistance or inquiries about the on-line registration system, please contact the Conference Secretariat at:

o     

All India Football Federation (AIFF) 5th AFC MedCon 2015 - Local Organizing Committee Football House Sector 19 Phase 1, Dwarka New Delhi 110075 Tel: +91 11 2804 1430 Fax: +91 11 2804 1434 Email: aiff@the-aiff.com Website: http://www.the-aiff.com

Asian Football Confederation (AFC) 5th AFC MedCon 2015 - Technical Secretariat AFC House, Jalan 1/155B , Bukit Jalil 57000 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Tel: +603 8994 3388 Fax: +603 8994 2689 Email: s.medicine@the-afc.com Website: www.the-afc.com

·          

Cancellations and refunds:

Notification of cancellation of registration must be sent in writing to All India Football Federation (AIFF) via email at aiff@the-aiff.com / fax: +91 11 2804 1434 and will be subject to the following conditions:

Cancellation received before 1st February 2015:

The payment will be refunded after the conference, less 30% of the amount paid

Cancellation received after 1st March 2015:

No refund will be provided

A CLOSE EYE ON THE WT20 SEMI-FINALISTS

A CLOSE EYE ON THE WT20 SEMI-FINALISTS

SEMI-FINAL 1: WEST INDIES vs. SRI LANKA

The road to the semifinals, for both these teams has been a really Topsy turvy one. They managed to uproot and eliminate the top sides in their respective groups and thereby, reaping the benefits by entering the semifinals. The stage is all set at Dhaka for a gripping battle between the finalists of World T20 2012, where West Indies managed to rob Sri Lanka of the much coveted title. Memories of that match would still be fresh in the minds of both the teams, though, Sri Lanka would most definitely want the result to go in their favor this time around by starting afresh and proving a point to their critics. Predicting the winner of this contest is not a layman’s piece of cake, so here are some dynamics of the two teams, to help you decide for yourself:-

West Indies

Strengths:

 Starting from the top, if a team has C. Gayle and DR. Smith at its disposal in the opening slot, be rest assured the morale of the opposition teams bowlers is automatically deflated. If that is not enough, WI possesses two of the cleanest hitters of the bowl in DJ. Bravo andD. Sammy. On the bowling front, S. Badree and S. Narine dominate the bowling attack with Santokie making a difference with his penetrative approach.

Weaknesses:

 Consistency in the opening order has been a source of concern for the team, with M. Samuels not holding on to the dependable position of No.3, thus, putting a lot of pressure on the lower middle-order. On the bowling front, WI lack the pace bowling sting in their armory, which is more often than not is the most exploited area by the opposition batsmen, inclusion of R. Rampaul in place of A. Russell might be an option.

Sri Lanka

Strengths:

The team has been in Bangladesh since January, giving them an added advantage in relation to coping up with the nature of the pitches and the all-important dew factor, which is playing havoc on the results in the tournament so far. Also, the form of R. Herath and L. Malinga are an opposition’s nightmare. Defending a mere 119 against the Kiwis would have been the optimum amount of boost needed by them when they compete on the big stage.

Weaknesses: 

Captaincy choices have been a real concern for the team as D. Chandimal hasn't proved his worth by any stretch of imagination- low on form plus suspension for a match due to low over-rate, have not helped his cause. Another low point being the inconsistency of stalwarts like K. Sangakkara and T. Dilshan has let them down on many instances.

Anmol Juneja

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